ABSTRACT
Nepal was hard hit by a second wave of COVID-19 from April-May 2021. We investigated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 at the national and provincial levels by using data on laboratory-confirmed RT-PCR positive cases from the official national situation reports. We performed 8 week-to-week sequential forecasts of 10-days and 20-days at national level using three dynamic phenomenological growth models from 5 March 2021-22 May 2021. We also estimated effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers at national and provincial levels using established methods and evaluated the mobility trends using Google's mobility data. Our forecast estimates indicated a declining trend of COVID-19 cases in Nepal as of June 2021. Sub-epidemic and Richards models provided reasonable short-term projections of COVID-19 cases based on standard performance metrics. There was a linear pattern in the trajectory of COVID-19 incidence during the first wave (deceleration of growth parameter (p) = 0.41-0.43, reproduction number (Rt) at 1.1 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.2)), and a sub-exponential growth pattern in the second wave (p = 0.61 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.64)) and Rt at 1.3 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.3)). Across provinces, Rt ranged from 1.2 to 1.5 during the early growth phase of the second wave. The instantaneous Rt fluctuated around 1.0 since January 2021 indicating well sustained transmission. The peak in mobility across different areas coincided with an increasing incidence trend of COVID-19. In conclusion, we found that the sub-epidemic and Richards models yielded reasonable short-terms projections of the COVID-19 trajectory in Nepal, which are useful for healthcare utilization planning.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Achieving maternal and newborn related Sustainable Development Goals targets is challenging for Nepal, mainly due to poor quality of maternity services. In this context, we aim to assess the Basic Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care (BEmONC) service availability and readiness in health facilities in Nepal by analyzing data from Nepal Health Facility Survey (NHFS), 2015. METHODS: We utilized cross-sectional data from the nationally representative NHFS, 2015. Service availability was measured by seven signal functions of BEmONC, and service readiness by the availability and functioning of supportive items categorized into three domains: staff and guidelines, diagnostic equipment, and basic medicine and commodities. We used the World Health Organization's service availability and readiness indicators to estimate the readiness scores. We performed a multiple linear regression to identify important factors in the readiness of the health facilities to provide BEmONC services. RESULTS: The BEmONC service readiness score was significantly higher in public hospitals compared with private hospitals and peripheral public health facilities. Significant factors associated with service readiness score were the facility type (14.69 points higher in public hospitals, P<0.001), number of service delivery staff (2.49 points increase per each additional delivery staff, P<0.001), the service hours (4.89 points higher in facilities offering 24-hour services, P = 0.01) and status of periodic review of maternal and newborn deaths (4.88 points higher in facilities that conducted periodic review, P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that BEmONC services in Nepal could be improved by increasing the number of service delivery staff, expanding service hours to 24-hours a day, and conducting periodic review of maternal and newborn deaths at health facilities, mainly in the peripheral public health facilities. The private hospitals need to be encouraged for BEmONC service readiness.